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Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.

The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.The trough dates for these indicators are: Macroeconomic Advisers' monthly GDP (June) The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June) Their index of monthly GDI (July) An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June) Real manufacturing and trade sales (June) Index of Industrial Production (June) Real personal income less transfers (October) Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October) Payroll survey employment (December) Household survey employment (December) The committee concluded that the choice of June 2009 as the trough month for economic activity was consistent with the later trough months in the labor-market indicators–aggregate hours and employment–for two reasons.First, the strong growth of quarterly real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter was inconsistent with designating any month in the fourth quarter as the trough month.Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973--82, both of which lasted 16 months.In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity.

Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date.In both the 2001- cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for real personal income less transfers.Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009, while the value of real GDI was essentially identical in the second and third quarters of 2009.The average of real GDP and real GDI reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009.The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.

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